Agricultural systems in Nioro are predominantly smallholder rainfed farms that cultivate cereals (millet, maize, and sorghum) and legumes (peanut and cowpea). Livestock plays a significant role in the functioning of the overall system. Farmers depend on crop residue as feed for livestock and provision of manure as fertilizer for the cropping system. The major constraints to agriculture are low soil fertility, soil erosion, and the lack of ready access to credit and agro-inputs.

In Nioro, annual temperature ranges between 18°C and 44°C. Maximum temperatures in the region have increased sharply in recent decades while minimum temperatures have increased slightly. Annual precipitation is highly variable, between 418 and 1035mm.

The Senegalese agricultural sector is low in productivity and the country is food-deficit. Over the last ten years, domestic production has covered between 30% and 65% of annual cereal needs. Imported rice, wheat, and maize have covered the remaining gap (ANSD, 2016).

Poverty is more pronounced in rural areas with an incidence of 57.1% compared to 26.1% in Dakar (PSE, 2014). In the specific case of the peanut basin, income poverty is high, with 90% of households affected (Faye et al., 2020).

West Africa is projected to experience substantial warming and shifts in precipitation during the critical June-September growing season.

The map below (left) shows temperature increases (in a high emissions scenario) from 1.0-2.5 C by the 2050s. These impacts will be even greater for Senegal's inland and arid regions.

The map (right) shows projected rainfall changes. These are more uncertain but indicate drier median conditions in the west (up to a 20% decline in rainfall) and slightly wetter conditions in the east (up to 10% increase).

 

Current System
If current farming systems and cultivation methods are used in the future, climate change will impact each crop differently. Peanut will benefit most in a warmer and wetter future climate though may experience reduced yields in drier futures due to positive responses to CO2 fertilization. Maize is projected to experience severe declines in yields, especially in a higher emissions future. Millet is not expected to see large benefits or losses due to climate change. Net impacts on farmers will then depend on the importance of each crop in the farming system.

Future System
When considering future changes in the farming systems, cultivation methods, and socio-economic conditions, climate change is projected to have a positive impact on Nioro farm livelihoods. Peanut production will largely benefit from climate change, especially with improved future production systems and higher input levels. Despite input improvements, the general trend shows maize will be negatively impacted. Some regions, however, may benefit slightly from climate change and may produce higher maize yields. Projected yields for millet show minimal changes.

Vulnerability, or the percentage of the population likely to be negatively impacted by climate change, is also dependent on economic projections. Crop prices will have a significant impact on the percentage of the vulnerable farming population.

Assuming higher prices, the percentage of vulnerable farms is projected to vary between 13% and 37%. Assuming lower prices, vulnerability increases to range between 55% and 77%. Vulnerability in the lower price situation is especially greater in dry climate scenarios. Overall, farms growing only maize would see the largest decline in net farm income.

 Two future scenarios of farm development and emissions or Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) were developed to assess future farm vulnerability: one representing sustainable development (Green Road) , the other fossil fuel development
(Grey Road).
 

Several adaptation measures can be implemented to improve crop productivity. Two adaptation packages were tested during this study. Both address the poor soil fertility; one also improves plant density whereas the other uses improved seeds.
 

Doubling fertilizer input and adjusting plant density will increase cereal and maize yields. Results from modeling indicate that at least 3 out of 4 smallholder households are potential adopters of this adaptation. However only 1 in 10 would adopt both a compound fertilizer and an improved variety package. Therefore increasing smallholder use of fertilizers is today more important than improved varieties.

Stakeholder involvement is essential in all stages of adaptation. The main objectives of stakeholder engagement for the AgMIP project are to incorporate stakeholder points of view in the agricultural models, develop future scenarios, and refine and share AgMIP findings and outputs.

Several stakeholder meetings were held with locally-based stakeholders in Nioro to develop RAPs and discuss findings. A final stakeholder engagement meeting with national-level stakeholders was held in Dakar. This meeting was held with policymakers and members of the National Platform on Climate Change in Senegal.

AgMIP key messages, including potential adaptation measures such as heat tolerant and drought resistant crops for solving regional agricultural problems, were discussed with stakeholders. They recommended developing irrigation schemes, using short duration cultivars, sensitizing the public on climate change, and planting trees, and promoting climate education in schools.